It depends whether he means what he says
Donald Trump is considering ignoring an important aspect of the NATO alliance for certain countries, according to reports from the US.
NBC News reports that Trump is ‘considering’ changing the US policy on engagement with other NATO countries so it might not defend an allied country which is attacked and isn’t spending enough money on defence.
NATO countries had pledged to be spending at least two percent of GDP on defence spending by 2024 and some nations lagging behind on this has been a consistent point of complaint for Donald Trump.
NBC reports that a trio of current and former US officials and a congressional official said Trump had discussed the possibility of changing the US approach towards their allies, and that the US might give priority on military exercises that are meeting the spending threshold.
In NATO, there is something known as ‘Article 5’, which is where a country that is attacked can claim that an attack on them is an attack on all other members which would call them into a war.
Article 5 has only ever been invoked once, and that’s by the US itself in the wake of the 11 September terrorist attacks.
If the US was to pick and choose not to defend certain countries which form part of NATO, then it would rather blow a whole in the principles of Article 5 and the idea that an invaded member of the alliance could count on the support of others, particularly if the country that will not help is the US.
A National Security Council official said in a statement: “President Trump is committed to NATO and Article V.”
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On the other hand, the number of countries which are still lagging behind the two percent target is not extensive, and most of them aren’t in much danger of being invaded at the moment.
In Europe, the NATO countries which aren’t yet at the spending target are Portugal, Spain, Belgium, Luxembourg, Italy, Slovakia and Croatia.
The countries which border an aggressive and expansionist nation, like Russia, are all spending above the target, some of them quite significantly.
So, while the consequences of the US not coming to the aid of a NATO ally would undermine one of the foundational principles of the alliance, any such change that Trump is currently ‘considering’ may not have much of an actual impact in the world.
Meanwhile, with Trump’s administration pausing military aid for Ukraine and withdrawing intelligence support many European nations have been exploring options for alliances that would not rely on the US any more.
UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has talked about building a ‘coalition of the willing’ to help Ukraine, and UK officials have said that around 20 countries have expressed an interest in contributing.
Over in France, Emmanuel Macron has said that his nation’s nuclear deterrent, which operates independent from the US, could be used to protect the entire continent of Europe.
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